NBA report card: week of 2026-05-04 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
78.6%
hit rate
0.140
Brier score
11 of 14 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Timberwolves at SpursSAS 69.1% pre-game — final SAS 102–MIN 104
- Spurs at TimberwolvesSAS 59.9% pre-game — final MIN 114–SAS 109
- Pistons at CavaliersDET 59.7% pre-game — final CLE 116–DET 109
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Lakers at ThunderOKC 83.8% pre-game — final OKC 125–LAL 107
- Lakers at ThunderOKC 82.8% pre-game — final OKC 108–LAL 90
- 76ers at KnicksNYK 80.4% pre-game — final NYK 108–PHI 102
- 76ers at KnicksNYK 80.1% pre-game — final NYK 137–PHI 98
- Thunder at LakersOKC 75.6% pre-game — final LAL 108–OKC 131
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers at Knicks Tue, May 5 | NYK 80.1% · PHI 19.9% | NYK 137–PHI 98 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Tue, May 5 | SAS 69.1% · MIN 30.9% | SAS 102–MIN 104 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Tue, May 5 | DET 71.1% · CLE 28.9% | DET 111–CLE 101 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Wed, May 6 | OKC 82.8% · LAL 17.2% | OKC 108–LAL 90 | Hit |
| 76ers at Knicks Wed, May 6 | NYK 80.4% · PHI 19.6% | NYK 108–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Thu, May 7 | SAS 69.8% · MIN 30.2% | SAS 133–MIN 95 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Thu, May 7 | DET 69.7% · CLE 30.3% | DET 107–CLE 97 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Fri, May 8 | OKC 83.8% · LAL 16.2% | OKC 125–LAL 107 | Hit |
| Knicks at 76ers Fri, May 8 | PHI 27.4% · NYK 72.6% | PHI 94–NYK 108 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sat, May 9 | MIN 40.1% · SAS 59.9% | MIN 108–SAS 115 | Hit |
| Pistons at Cavaliers Sat, May 9 | CLE 40.3% · DET 59.7% | CLE 116–DET 109 | Miss |
| Thunder at Lakers Sun, May 10 | LAL 24.4% · OKC 75.6% | LAL 108–OKC 131 | Hit |
| Knicks at 76ers Sun, May 10 | PHI 27.4% · NYK 72.6% | PHI 114–NYK 144 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sun, May 10 | MIN 40.1% · SAS 59.9% | MIN 114–SAS 109 | Miss |
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