Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Spurs are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Spurs (53-18) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 57% (−12)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 63% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 64% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: SAS 67% (−2)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Spurs 104-102.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 69% confidence, but the Timberwolves won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Spurs are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Spurs (53-18) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Rest DaysFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Spurs
Timberwolves
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Timberwolves
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 69% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.