NBA report card: week of 2026-02-16 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
75.0%
hit rate
0.221
Brier score
3 of 4 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Celtics at WarriorsGSW 53.0% pre-game — final GSW 110–BOS 121
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Suns at SpursSAS 57.9% pre-game — final SAS 121–PHX 94
- Jazz at GrizzliesMEM 57.7% pre-game — final MEM 123–UTA 114
- Magic at KingsORL 50.3% pre-game — final SAC 94–ORL 131
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suns at Spurs Fri, Feb 20 | SAS 57.9% · PHX 42.1% | SAS 121–PHX 94 | Hit |
| Magic at Kings Fri, Feb 20 | SAC 49.7% · ORL 50.3% | SAC 94–ORL 131 | Hit |
| Celtics at Warriors Fri, Feb 20 | GSW 53.0% · BOS 47.0% | GSW 110–BOS 121 | Miss |
| Jazz at Grizzlies Sat, Feb 21 | MEM 57.7% · UTA 42.3% | MEM 123–UTA 114 | Hit |
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