Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards head-to-head
Oklahoma City Thunder 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1642 vs Wizards ELO 1382 (diff: +260)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 2-2 at home this season; Wizards are 1-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 44% (−20)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 80% (+16)
- If the rating edge were neutral: OKC 55% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 60% (−4)
Win probability movement
OKC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Wizards at Thunder
The Wizards visit the Thunder at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Wizards to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Wizards (high): Wizards offense (115.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (high): Thunder ELO 1642 vs Wizards ELO 1382 (diff: +260)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Thunder have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Wizards have 3.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Wizards
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- InjuriesFavors Washington Wizards
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Wizards (114.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Wizards offense (115.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Wizards (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
ELO Rating
Thunder ELO 1642 vs Wizards ELO 1382 (diff: +260)
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Thunder
Wizards
Key Players
Wizards
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous game61%MEM win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Washington Wizards
- Previous game92%ATL win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Other games on Nov 8, 2026
- 90%ATL win probability
- 54%CLE win probability
- 53%ORL win probability
- 78%HOU win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 64% win probability, while Wizards has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.