Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (105.5 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Grizzlies ELO 1402 vs Thunder ELO 1642 (diff: -240)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Thunder at Grizzlies
The Thunder visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, TN in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Grizzlies to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (105.5 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (high): Grizzlies ELO 1402 vs Thunder ELO 1642 (diff: -240)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (105.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
ELO Rating
Grizzlies ELO 1402 vs Thunder ELO 1642 (diff: -240)
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Thunder
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 49% win probability, while Thunder has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.