Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic head-to-head
Orlando Magic 53% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Magic:
- Injuries. Magic healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Warriors 7 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency. Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (106.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Warriors ELO 1473 vs Magic ELO 1517 (diff: -44)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 67% (+14)
- If the injury edge were neutral: ORL 38% (−15)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 44% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 58% (+5)
Win probability movement
GSW home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Magic at Warriors
The Magic visit the Warriors at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Magic a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Warriors to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Warriors (high): Warriors defense (119.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (123.5 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favors the Magic (high): Magic healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Warriors 7 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Magic (medium): Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (106.5 PPG)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Warriors have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Magic have 4.
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- InjuriesFavors Orlando Magic
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Golden State Warriors
- ELO RatingFavors Orlando Magic
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (119.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (123.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (106.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Warriors turnover differential (+0) vs Magic (+0)
Injuries
Magic healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Warriors 7 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Warriors
Magic
Key Players
Magic
Warriors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Golden State Warriors
- Previous game56%GSW win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Orlando Magic
- Previous game54%ORL win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Other games on Nov 8, 2026
- 90%ATL win probability
- 64%OKC win probability
- 54%CLE win probability
- 78%HOU win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Warriors has a 47% win probability, while Magic has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.