New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder
New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder head-to-head
Oklahoma City Thunder 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1642 vs Pelicans ELO 1432 (diff: +211)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 2-2 at home this season; Pelicans are 2-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 80% (+16)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 44% (−20)
- If the rating edge were neutral: OKC 56% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 60% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Pelicans at Thunder
The Pelicans visit the Thunder at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Pelicans to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (medium): Thunder ELO 1642 vs Pelicans ELO 1432 (diff: +211)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Pelicans
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game-No model yet
New Orleans Pelicans
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 20, 2026
- 85%ATL win probability
- 78%BKN win probability
- 54%TOR win probability
- 72%CLE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 64% win probability, while Pelicans has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.