MLB report card: week of 2026-04-06 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
54.3%
hit rate
0.247
Brier score
51 of 94 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Diamondbacks at PhilliesPHI 63.5% pre-game — final PHI 4–ARI 5
- Rangers at DodgersLAD 54.9% pre-game — final LAD 2–TEX 5
- Red Sox at CardinalsSTL 54.9% pre-game — final STL 3–BOS 9
- Nationals at BrewersMIL 54.9% pre-game — final MIL 6–WSH 8
- Chicago White Sox at RoyalsKC 54.9% pre-game — final KC 5–CWS 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Cardinals at NationalsWSH 61.7% pre-game — final WSH 9–STL 6
- Cubs at RaysTB 61.7% pre-game — final TB 6–CHC 4
- Yankees at RaysTB 56.8% pre-game — final TB 5–NYY 3
- Twins at Blue JaysTOR 56.8% pre-game — final TOR 10–MIN 4
- Guardians at BravesATL 54.9% pre-game — final ATL 13–CLE 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs at Rays Mon, Apr 6 | TB 61.7% · CHC 38.3% | TB 6–CHC 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Guardians Mon, Apr 6 | CLE 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CLE 2–KC 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Pirates Mon, Apr 6 | PIT 54.9% · SD 45.1% | PIT 0–SD 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Marlins Mon, Apr 6 | MIA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIA 0–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Nationals Mon, Apr 6 | WSH 61.7% · STL 38.3% | WSH 9–STL 6 | Hit |
| Brewers at Red Sox Mon, Apr 6 | BOS 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | BOS 6–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Mon, Apr 6 | TOR 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | TOR 2–LAD 14 | Miss |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Mon, Apr 6 | CWS 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CWS 1–BAL 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Mon, Apr 6 | MIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | MIN 7–DET 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rangers Tue, Apr 7 | TEX 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | TEX 2–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Tue, Apr 7 | COL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | COL 9–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Braves at Angels Tue, Apr 7 | LAA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAA 6–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Giants Tue, Apr 7 | SF 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | SF 4–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Royals at Guardians Tue, Apr 7 | CLE 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CLE 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Tue, Apr 7 | CWS 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CWS 2–BAL 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Tue, Apr 7 | NYM 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | NYM 4–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Marlins Tue, Apr 7 | MIA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIA 3–CIN 6 | Miss |
| Cubs at Rays Tue, Apr 7 | TB 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | TB 2–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Padres at Pirates Tue, Apr 7 | PIT 54.9% · SD 45.1% | PIT 7–SD 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Nationals Tue, Apr 7 | WSH 54.9% · STL 45.1% | WSH 6–STL 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Red Sox Tue, Apr 7 | BOS 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | BOS 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Yankees Tue, Apr 7 | NYY 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYY 5–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Tue, Apr 7 | TOR 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | TOR 1–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Tue, Apr 7 | MIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | MIN 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rangers Wed, Apr 8 | TEX 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | TEX 3–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Wed, Apr 8 | COL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | COL 5–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Angels Wed, Apr 8 | LAA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAA 2–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Giants Wed, Apr 8 | SF 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | SF 6–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Pirates Wed, Apr 8 | PIT 54.9% · SD 45.1% | PIT 2–SD 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Guardians Wed, Apr 8 | CLE 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CLE 10–KC 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Red Sox Wed, Apr 8 | BOS 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | BOS 5–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Wed, Apr 8 | CWS 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CWS 3–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Wed, Apr 8 | TEX 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | TEX 3–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Wed, Apr 8 | TOR 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | TOR 4–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Wed, Apr 8 | COL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | COL 9–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Giants Wed, Apr 8 | SF 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | SF 5–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Nationals Wed, Apr 8 | WSH 54.9% · STL 45.1% | WSH 1–STL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Angels Wed, Apr 8 | LAA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAA 2–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Wed, Apr 8 | NYM 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | NYM 2–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Reds at Marlins Wed, Apr 8 | MIA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIA 7–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rays Wed, Apr 8 | TB 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | TB 2–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Yankees Wed, Apr 8 | NYY 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYY 2–OAK 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Wed, Apr 8 | MIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | MIN 8–DET 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Marlins Thu, Apr 9 | MIA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIA 8–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Yankees Thu, Apr 9 | NYY 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYY 0–OAK 1 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Thu, Apr 9 | MIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | MIN 3–DET 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Thu, Apr 9 | NYM 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | NYM 1–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Thu, Apr 9 | KC 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | KC 0–CWS 2 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Fri, Apr 10 | SD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | SD 7–COL 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Cubs Fri, Apr 10 | CHC 52.9% · PIT 47.1% | CHC 0–PIT 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Fri, Apr 10 | PHI 63.5% · ARI 36.5% | PHI 4–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Tigers Fri, Apr 10 | DET 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | DET 2–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Reds Fri, Apr 10 | CIN 52.9% · LAA 47.1% | CIN 2–LAA 10 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Fri, Apr 10 | TOR 56.8% · MIN 43.2% | TOR 10–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Mets Fri, Apr 10 | NYM 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYM 0–OAK 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Fri, Apr 10 | TB 56.8% · NYY 43.2% | TB 5–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Orioles Fri, Apr 10 | BAL 54.9% · SF 45.1% | BAL 3–SF 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Braves Fri, Apr 10 | ATL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | ATL 11–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Fri, Apr 10 | MIL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIL 3–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Fri, Apr 10 | KC 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | KC 2–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sat, Apr 11 | STL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | STL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Padres Sat, Apr 11 | SD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | SD 5–COL 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sat, Apr 11 | SEA 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | SEA 9–HOU 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sat, Apr 11 | LAD 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | LAD 8–TEX 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Sat, Apr 11 | PHI 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | PHI 4–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Tigers Sat, Apr 11 | DET 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | DET 6–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Cubs Sat, Apr 11 | CHC 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | CHC 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Sat, Apr 11 | TOR 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | TOR 4–MIN 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sat, Apr 11 | KC 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | KC 2–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Athletics at Mets Sat, Apr 11 | NYM 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYM 6–OAK 11 | Miss |
| Angels at Reds Sat, Apr 11 | CIN 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CIN 7–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Sat, Apr 11 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 5–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Sat, Apr 11 | MIL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIL 1–WSH 3 | Miss |
| Giants at Orioles Sat, Apr 11 | BAL 54.9% · SF 45.1% | BAL 6–SF 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Braves Sat, Apr 11 | ATL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | ATL 0–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sat, Apr 11 | STL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | STL 1–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Sun, Apr 12 | SD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | SD 9–COL 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Apr 12 | LAD 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | LAD 6–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sun, Apr 12 | SEA 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | SEA 8–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Giants at Orioles Sun, Apr 12 | BAL 54.9% · SF 45.1% | BAL 6–SF 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Sun, Apr 12 | PHI 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | PHI 3–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Sun, Apr 12 | TOR 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | TOR 2–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Sun, Apr 12 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 5–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Reds Sun, Apr 12 | CIN 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CIN 6–LAA 9 | Miss |
| Athletics at Mets Sun, Apr 12 | NYM 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | NYM 0–OAK 1 | Miss |
| Marlins at Tigers Sun, Apr 12 | DET 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | DET 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Sun, Apr 12 | MIL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIL 6–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sun, Apr 12 | KC 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | KC 5–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sun, Apr 12 | STL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | STL 3–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cubs Sun, Apr 12 | CHC 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | CHC 7–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sun, Apr 12 | SEA 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | SEA 6–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Apr 12 | LAD 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | LAD 2–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Sun, Apr 12 | SD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | SD 7–COL 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Braves Sun, Apr 12 | ATL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | ATL 13–CLE 1 | Hit |
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