Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Marlins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins defeated the Reds 8-1.
Our model predicted the Marlins would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Marlins (back-to-back) vs Reds (back-to-back)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Marlins won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 55% win probability, while Reds has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.