Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros head-to-head
Colorado Rockies 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rockies:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockies defeated the Astros 9-7.
Our model predicted the Rockies would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockies and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockies won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Rockies
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Astros
Rockies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Colorado Rockies
- Previous game55%COL win probability
- Next game55%COL win probability
Houston Astros
- Previous game55%OAK win probability
- Next game55%COL win probability
Other games on Apr 7, 2026
- 55%TEX win probability
- 55%LAA win probability
- 55%SF win probability
- 55%CLE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockies has a 55% win probability, while Astros has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.