Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Rest Days. Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: TB 56% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 58% (−4)
Win probability movement
TB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Cubs 6-4.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Rays and was a major factor: Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Rays (0 out) vs Cubs (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cubs
Rays
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 62% win probability, while Cubs has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.