MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-10-05 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 73% across 11 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 76% — final LAD 2–ATL 3
- Injuries (favors LAD)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors LAD)
- Home Field Advantage (favors LAD)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves at Dodgers Mon, Oct 5 | LAD 76% • ATL 24% | LAD 2–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Mon, Oct 5 | CLE 64% • CWS 36% | CLE 3–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Tue, Oct 6 | TB 66% • NYY 34% | TB 5–NYY 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Braves Tue, Oct 6 | ATL 32% • LAD 68% | ATL 1–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Padres Wed, Oct 7 | SD 51% • MIL 49% | SD 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Wed, Oct 7 | CWS 45% • CLE 55% | CWS 3–CLE 9 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Braves Wed, Oct 7 | ATL 32% • LAD 68% | ATL 1–LAD 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Yankees Thu, Oct 8 | NYY 44% • TB 56% | NYY 3–TB 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Padres Thu, Oct 8 | SD 52% • MIL 48% | SD 1–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Fri, Oct 9 | CWS 45% • CLE 55% | CWS 5–CLE 9 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sun, Oct 11 | CLE 65% • CWS 36% | CLE 2–CWS 0 | Hit |