MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-09-28 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 86% across 14 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 64% — final CLE 0–CWS 3
- Injuries (favors CLE)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors CWS)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors CLE)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies at Braves Tue, Sep 29 | ATL 52% • PHI 48% | ATL 5–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Astros Tue, Sep 29 | HOU 39% • CWS 61% | HOU 3–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Wed, Sep 30 | NYY 72% • BOS 28% | NYY 9–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Padres Wed, Sep 30 | SD 59% • CHC 41% | SD 8–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Phillies at Braves Wed, Sep 30 | ATL 53% • PHI 47% | ATL 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Astros Wed, Sep 30 | HOU 38% • CWS 62% | HOU 3–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Thu, Oct 1 | NYY 73% • BOS 27% | NYY 9–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Padres Thu, Oct 1 | SD 60% • CHC 40% | SD 4–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Braves Fri, Oct 2 | ATL 52% • PHI 48% | ATL 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sat, Oct 3 | CLE 64% • CWS 36% | CLE 0–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Dodgers Sat, Oct 3 | LAD 76% • ATL 24% | LAD 5–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Sat, Oct 3 | TB 64% • NYY 36% | TB 1–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Sun, Oct 4 | MIL 58% • SD 42% | MIL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Sun, Oct 4 | MIL 59% • SD 41% | MIL 4–SD 3 | Hit |