MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-03-23 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 57% across 69 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final HOU 0–LAA 3
- Home Field Advantage (favors HOU)
- Rest Days (favors HOU)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners at Chicago White Sox Mon, Mar 23 | CWS 55% • SEA 45% | CWS 2–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Angels Mon, Mar 23 | LAA 55% • LAD 45% | LAA 5–LAD 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Mon, Mar 23 | SD 55% • ARI 45% | SD 1–ARI 11 | Miss |
| Rays at Phillies Mon, Mar 23 | PHI 55% • TB 45% | PHI 0–TB 7 | Miss |
| Orioles at Nationals Mon, Mar 23 | WSH 55% • BAL 45% | WSH 0–BAL 2 | Miss |
| Braves at Pirates Mon, Mar 23 | PIT 55% • ATL 45% | PIT 2–ATL 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Red Sox Mon, Mar 23 | BOS 55% • MIN 45% | BOS 6–MIN 9 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Mon, Mar 23 | OAK 55% • CWS 45% | OAK 10–CWS 9 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Mon, Mar 23 | CHC 55% • NYY 45% | CHC 15–NYY 6 | Hit |
| Mariners at Padres Mon, Mar 23 | SD 55% • SEA 45% | SD 10–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Brewers Mon, Mar 23 | MIL 55% • CIN 45% | MIL 9–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Tue, Mar 24 | TEX 55% • KC 45% | TEX 3–KC 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Rockies Tue, Mar 24 | COL 55% • DET 45% | COL 6–DET 5 | Hit |
| Guardians at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 24 | ARI 55% • CLE 45% | ARI 0–CLE 7 | Miss |
| Rays at Braves Tue, Mar 24 | ATL 55% • TB 45% | ATL 3–TB 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Twins Tue, Mar 24 | MIN 55% • BOS 45% | MIN 15–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Tue, Mar 24 | TEX 55% • KC 45% | TEX 4–KC 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Tue, Mar 24 | CHC 55% • NYY 45% | CHC 3–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rockies Tue, Mar 24 | COL 55% • DET 45% | COL 8–DET 11 | Miss |
| Guardians at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 24 | ARI 55% • CLE 45% | ARI 5–CLE 10 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Tue, Mar 24 | MIL 55% • CIN 45% | MIL 4–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Dodgers Wed, Mar 25 | LAD 55% • LAA 45% | LAD 0–LAA 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Giants Thu, Mar 26 | SF 56% • NYY 44% | SF 0–NYY 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Mets Thu, Mar 26 | NYM 54% • PIT 46% | NYM 11–PIT 7 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Thu, Mar 26 | MIL 52% • CWS 48% | MIL 14–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cubs Thu, Mar 26 | CHC 52% • WSH 48% | CHC 4–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Twins at Orioles Thu, Mar 26 | BAL 55% • MIN 45% | BAL 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Thu, Mar 26 | HOU 56% • LAA 44% | HOU 0–LAA 3 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Reds Thu, Mar 26 | CIN 53% • BOS 47% | CIN 0–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Thu, Mar 26 | SD 55% • DET 45% | SD 2–DET 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Thu, Mar 26 | PHI 55% • TEX 45% | PHI 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Thu, Mar 26 | STL 54% • TB 46% | STL 9–TB 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Fri, Mar 27 | LAD 55% • ARI 45% | LAD 8–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Mariners Fri, Mar 27 | SEA 55% • CLE 45% | SEA 4–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Yankees at Giants Fri, Mar 27 | SF 55% • NYY 45% | SF 0–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Fri, Mar 27 | TOR 55% • OAK 45% | TOR 3–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Marlins Fri, Mar 27 | MIA 54% • COL 46% | MIA 2–COL 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Braves Fri, Mar 27 | ATL 55% • KC 45% | ATL 6–KC 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sat, Mar 28 | HOU 55% • LAA 45% | HOU 2–LAA 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Sat, Mar 28 | SD 55% • DET 45% | SD 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Guardians at Mariners Sat, Mar 28 | SEA 55% • CLE 45% | SEA 5–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sat, Mar 28 | LAD 55% • ARI 45% | LAD 5–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Sat, Mar 28 | STL 55% • TB 45% | STL 6–TB 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cubs Sat, Mar 28 | CHC 55% • WSH 45% | CHC 10–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Sat, Mar 28 | TOR 55% • OAK 45% | TOR 8–OAK 7 | Hit |
| Twins at Orioles Sat, Mar 28 | BAL 55% • MIN 45% | BAL 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Sat, Mar 28 | PHI 55% • TEX 45% | PHI 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Rockies at Marlins Sat, Mar 28 | MIA 55% • COL 45% | MIA 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Sat, Mar 28 | NYM 55% • PIT 45% | NYM 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Reds Sat, Mar 28 | CIN 55% • BOS 45% | CIN 6–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sat, Mar 28 | HOU 55% • LAA 45% | HOU 11–LAA 9 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Sat, Mar 28 | MIL 55% • CWS 45% | MIL 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Braves Sat, Mar 28 | ATL 55% • KC 45% | ATL 6–KC 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Giants Sat, Mar 28 | SF 55% • NYY 45% | SF 1–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Sun, Mar 29 | SD 55% • DET 45% | SD 3–DET 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Mar 29 | LAD 55% • ARI 45% | LAD 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Mariners Sun, Mar 29 | SEA 55% • CLE 45% | SEA 5–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Sun, Mar 29 | PHI 55% • TEX 45% | PHI 3–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Braves Sun, Mar 29 | ATL 55% • KC 45% | ATL 1–KC 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Orioles Sun, Mar 29 | BAL 55% • MIN 45% | BAL 8–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Sun, Mar 29 | TOR 55% • OAK 45% | TOR 5–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Sun, Mar 29 | NYM 55% • PIT 45% | NYM 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Rockies at Marlins Sun, Mar 29 | MIA 55% • COL 45% | MIA 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Reds Sun, Mar 29 | CIN 55% • BOS 45% | CIN 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Sun, Mar 29 | MIL 55% • CWS 45% | MIL 9–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sun, Mar 29 | HOU 55% • LAA 45% | HOU 9–LAA 7 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Sun, Mar 29 | STL 55% • TB 45% | STL 7–TB 11 | Miss |
| Nationals at Cubs Sun, Mar 29 | CHC 55% • WSH 45% | CHC 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Mariners Sun, Mar 29 | SEA 55% • CLE 45% | SEA 8–CLE 0 | Hit |