NHL report card: week of 2026-05-04 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
58.3%
hit rate
0.244
Brier score
7 of 12 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Hurricanes at FlyersPHI 56.3% pre-game — final PHI 2–CAR 3
- Canadiens at SabresBUF 56.3% pre-game — final BUF 1–MTL 5
- Hurricanes at FlyersPHI 56.3% pre-game — final PHI 1–CAR 4
- Ducks at Golden KnightsVGK 56.0% pre-game — final VGK 1–ANA 3
- Golden Knights at DucksANA 54.9% pre-game — final ANA 2–VGK 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Sabres at CanadiensMTL 56.3% pre-game — final MTL 6–BUF 2
- Avalanche at WildMIN 56.3% pre-game — final MIN 5–COL 1
- Wild at AvalancheCOL 56.3% pre-game — final COL 5–MIN 2
- Flyers at HurricanesCAR 56.3% pre-game — final CAR 3–PHI 2
- Ducks at Golden KnightsVGK 55.6% pre-game — final VGK 3–ANA 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild at Avalanche Mon, May 4 | COL 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | COL 9–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Flyers at Hurricanes Mon, May 4 | CAR 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | CAR 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Tue, May 5 | VGK 55.6% · ANA 44.4% | VGK 3–ANA 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Avalanche Wed, May 6 | COL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | COL 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Sabres Wed, May 6 | BUF 55.5% · MTL 44.5% | BUF 4–MTL 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Thu, May 7 | VGK 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | VGK 1–ANA 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Fri, May 8 | PHI 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | PHI 1–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Sabres Fri, May 8 | BUF 56.3% · MTL 43.7% | BUF 1–MTL 5 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Ducks Sat, May 9 | ANA 54.9% · VGK 45.1% | ANA 2–VGK 6 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Flyers Sat, May 9 | PHI 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | PHI 2–CAR 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Wild Sun, May 10 | MIN 56.3% · COL 43.7% | MIN 5–COL 1 | Hit |
| Sabres at Canadiens Sun, May 10 | MTL 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | MTL 6–BUF 2 | Hit |
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