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New York Islanders at Dallas Stars

NHLregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Stars logo
Stars
Dallas
0
vs
Islanders logo
Islanders
New York
0
DAL 55%45% NYI
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Dallas Stars 55% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Stars:

  • Home Field Advantage. Stars are 5-2 at home this season; Islanders are 2-4 on the road
  • ELO Rating. Stars ELO 1523 vs Islanders ELO 1466 (diff: +57)
  • Recent Form. Stars (6-3) in better form than Islanders (5-3)

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Islanders (away)
Stars (home)
45%
Win probability
55%
0
High-impact factors
0
4
Players ruled out
5

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Islanders at Stars

The Islanders visit the Stars at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Stars a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Islanders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Islanders (medium): Islanders healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Stars (medium): Stars are 5-2 at home this season; Islanders are 2-4 on the road
  • ELO Rating favors the Stars (low): Stars ELO 1523 vs Islanders ELO 1466 (diff: +57)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Stars have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Islanders have 4.
Stars55%

is slightly favored to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors NYI

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors New York Islanders
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
  • ELO RatingFavors Dallas Stars
  • Recent FormFavors Dallas Stars
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NYI
DAL
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Recent Form
Favours NYI|Favours DAL

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 3:00:23 AM

Stars

Cameron HughesC(Upper Body)
OUT
Oskar BackC(Finger)
OUT
Matt DucheneC(Abdomen)
OUT
Radek FaksaC(Undisclosed)
QUESTIONABLE
Esa LindellD(Lower Body)
OUT
Luke KrysD(Undisclosed)
OUT

Islanders

Calum RitchieC(Lower Body)
OUT
Mathew BarzalC(Knee)
OUT
Alexander RomanovD(Knee)
OUT
Matias MaccelliLW(Lower Body)
OUT

Key Players

Islanders

Semyon VarlamovG
Ilya SorokinG
Calum RitchieCOUT
-5.5% win prob impact
Brayden SchennC
Mathew BarzalCOUT
-5.5% win prob impact

Stars

Jake OettingerG
Casey DeSmithG
Wyatt JohnstonC
Oskar BackCOUT
-5.5% win prob impact
Colin BlackwellC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Stars has a 55% win probability, while Islanders has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.

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