Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head
Edmonton Oilers 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Oilers:
- ELO Rating. Maple Leafs ELO 1491 vs Oilers ELO 1549 (diff: -58)
- Recent Form. Oilers (8-2) in better form than Maple Leafs (7-4)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: EDM 49% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: EDM 50% (−2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: EDM 52% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Oilers at Maple Leafs
The Oilers visit the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Oilers a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Maple Leafs to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Oilers (low): Maple Leafs ELO 1491 vs Oilers ELO 1549 (diff: -58)
- Recent Form favors the Oilers (low): Oilers (8-2) in better form than Maple Leafs (7-4)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Oilers are 7-0 on the road
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Recent FormFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Oilers
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Previous game65%EDM win probability
- Next game50%CHI win probability
Edmonton Oilers
- Previous game65%EDM win probability
- Next game57%EDM win probability
Other games on Nov 14, 2026
- 62%CAR win probability
- 53%CHI win probability
- 63%TBL win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 48% win probability, while Oilers has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.