Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins head-to-head
Pittsburgh Penguins 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Penguins:
- Home Field Advantage. Penguins are 5-2 at home this season; Senators are 3-5 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 49% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PIT 57% (+2)
- If the rating edge were neutral: PIT 55% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Senators at Penguins
The Senators visit the Penguins at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Penguins a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Senators to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Penguins (medium): Penguins are 5-2 at home this season; Senators are 3-5 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Senators (low): Senators (8-4) in better form than Penguins (5-6)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Penguins ELO 1494 vs Senators ELO 1513 (diff: -18)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Senators
Penguins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Previous game54%NSH win probability
- Next game57%PIT win probability
Ottawa Senators
- Previous game70%OTT win probability
- Next game52%WPG win probability
Other games on Nov 14, 2026
- 62%CAR win probability
- 53%CHI win probability
- 63%TBL win probability
- 62%BOS win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Penguins has a 55% win probability, while Senators has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.