Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs
Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head
Toronto Maple Leafs 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Avalanche are 2-5 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 50% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: TOR 57% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 55% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Avalanche at Maple Leafs
The Avalanche visit the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Maple Leafs a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Avalanche to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Maple Leafs (medium): Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Avalanche are 2-5 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Avalanche (low): Maple Leafs ELO 1491 vs Avalanche ELO 1547 (diff: -56)
- Recent Form is neutral: Similar form: Maple Leafs (7-4) vs Avalanche (6-4)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Avalanche
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Previous game65%EDM win probability
- Next game55%TOR win probability
Colorado Avalanche
- Previous game56%TBL win probability
- Next game58%OTT win probability
Other games on Nov 10, 2026
- 57%MTL win probability
- 56%OTT win probability
- 56%CBJ win probability
- 52%WPG win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 55% win probability, while Avalanche has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.