Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bills defeated the Colts 30-20.
Our model predicted the Colts would win with 55% confidence, but the Bills pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Colts and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Bills and was a contributing factor: Buffalo Bills has rest advantage (7 days) over Indianapolis Colts (6 days)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bills won comfortably
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 55% win probability, while Bills has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.