NBA report card: week of 2026-02-23 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
66.7%
hit rate
0.166
Brier score
4 of 6 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Lakers at WarriorsGSW 64.3% pre-game — final GSW 101–LAL 129
- Spurs at KnicksSAS 50.3% pre-game — final NYK 114–SAS 89
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Nets at CelticsBOS 90.0% pre-game — final BOS 148–BKN 111
- Knicks at BucksNYK 77.1% pre-game — final MIL 98–NYK 127
- Trail Blazers at HornetsCHA 75.2% pre-game — final CHA 109–POR 93
- Pelicans at JazzNOP 54.6% pre-game — final UTA 105–NOP 115
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nets at Celtics Sat, Feb 28 | BOS 90.0% · BKN 10.0% | BOS 148–BKN 111 | Hit |
| Knicks at Bucks Sat, Feb 28 | MIL 22.9% · NYK 77.1% | MIL 98–NYK 127 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Hornets Sat, Feb 28 | CHA 75.2% · POR 24.8% | CHA 109–POR 93 | Hit |
| Lakers at Warriors Sun, Mar 1 | GSW 64.3% · LAL 35.7% | GSW 101–LAL 129 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Jazz Sun, Mar 1 | UTA 45.4% · NOP 54.6% | UTA 105–NOP 115 | Hit |
| Spurs at Knicks Sun, Mar 1 | NYK 49.7% · SAS 50.3% | NYK 114–SAS 89 | Miss |
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