New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
New Orleans Pelicans 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pelicans defense (120.3 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.9 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pelicans (18-42) in better form than Jazz (18-41)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 36% (−19)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 62% (+7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NOP 57% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NOP 53% (−2)
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pelicans defeated the Jazz 115-105.
Our model predicted the Pelicans would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a major factor: Pelicans defense (120.3 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.9 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz offense (118.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (115.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pelicans won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Recent FormFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pelicans defense (120.3 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.9 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (118.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (115.0 PPG)
Recent Form
Pelicans (18-42) in better form than Jazz (18-41)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 45% win probability, while Pelicans has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
Venue information is not yet available for this game.