Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trail Blazers head-to-head
Portland Trail Blazers 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Trail Blazers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Timberwolves (123.0 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 42% (−9)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 58% (+7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: POR 52% (+1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: POR 51% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Trail Blazers at Timberwolves
The Trail Blazers visit the Timberwolves at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Trail Blazers a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Timberwolves to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Trail Blazers (medium): Trail Blazers offense (126.0 PPG) outpaces Timberwolves (123.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Timberwolves (medium): Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (101.5 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Timberwolves ELO 1566 vs Trail Blazers ELO 1557 (diff: +9)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Trail Blazers
Timberwolves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Previous game87%MIN win probability
- Next game51%POR win probability
Portland Trail Blazers
- Previous game86%POR win probability
- Next game51%POR win probability
Other games on Nov 16, 2026
- 77%CLE win probability
- 81%BOS win probability
- 64%MEM win probability
- 78%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Timberwolves has a 49% win probability, while Trail Blazers has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.