Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
Orlando Magic vs Phoenix Suns head-to-head
Orlando Magic 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Magic:
- Offensive Efficiency. Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Magic defense (123.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Suns ELO 1485 vs Magic ELO 1517 (diff: -32)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 34% (−20)
- If the injury edge were neutral: ORL 67% (+13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 57% (+3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Magic at Suns
The Magic visit the Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Magic a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Suns to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Magic (high): Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- Injuries favors the Suns (high): Suns healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Magic 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favors the Suns (medium): Suns are 1-1 at home this season; Magic are 1-1 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Suns have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Magic have 4.
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- InjuriesFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- ELO RatingFavors Orlando Magic
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Magic offense (109.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Magic defense (123.5 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Magic (+0)
Injuries
Suns healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Magic 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Suns
Magic
Key Players
Magic
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game82%POR win probability
- Next game78%HOU win probability
Orlando Magic
- Previous game81%WSH win probability
- Next game53%ORL win probability
Other games on Nov 6, 2026
- 56%GSW win probability
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Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 46% win probability, while Magic has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.