New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors
New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors head-to-head
Toronto Raptors 87% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Raptors:
- Offensive Efficiency. Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Knicks (101.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (106.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 3-1 at home this season; Knicks are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 74% (−13)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 74% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 83% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: TOR 87% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Knicks at Raptors
The Knicks visit the Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Raptors a 87% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Knicks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Raptors (high): Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Knicks (101.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Raptors (high): Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (106.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Raptors (medium): Raptors are 3-1 at home this season; Knicks are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- ELO RatingFavors New York Knicks
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Raptors offense (123.5 PPG) outpaces Knicks (101.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (97.0 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (106.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Knicks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Knicks
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Raptors
- Previous game86%TOR win probability
- Next game88%TOR win probability
New York Knicks
- Previous game54%BOS win probability
- Next game86%MIN win probability
Other games on Nov 17, 2026
- 51%POR win probability
- 66%DET win probability
- 82%LAL win probability
- 89%LAC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 87% win probability, while Knicks has a 13% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.