Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder head-to-head
Oklahoma City Thunder 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (109.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1642 vs Hawks ELO 1580 (diff: +62)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 73% (+18)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 35% (−20)
- If the rating edge were neutral: OKC 53% (−2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 54% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Hawks at Thunder
The Hawks visit the Thunder at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Hawks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Hawks (high): Hawks offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (109.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (low): Thunder ELO 1642 vs Hawks ELO 1580 (diff: +62)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (106.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (94.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (109.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Hawks
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game64%OKC win probability
Atlanta Hawks
- Previous game91%ATL win probability
- Next game85%ATL win probability
Other games on Nov 18, 2026
- 55%MIA win probability
- 80%PHI win probability
- 66%MEM win probability
- 86%HOU win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 55% win probability, while Hawks has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.