MLB report card: week of 2026-04-20 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
48.4%
hit rate
0.254
Brier score
45 of 93 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Pirates at BrewersMIL 61.7% pre-game — final MIL 0–PIT 6
- Braves at NationalsWSH 61.7% pre-game — final WSH 4–ATL 9
- Yankees at AstrosHOU 56.8% pre-game — final HOU 4–NYY 12
- Rockies at MetsNYM 54.9% pre-game — final NYM 0–COL 3
- Athletics at RangersTEX 54.9% pre-game — final TEX 1–OAK 2
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Twins at RaysTB 56.8% pre-game — final TB 6–MIN 2
- Red Sox at OriolesBAL 56.8% pre-game — final BAL 10–BOS 3
- Tigers at RedsCIN 56.8% pre-game — final CIN 9–DET 8
- Dodgers at GiantsSF 56.8% pre-game — final SF 3–LAD 1
- Cubs at DodgersLAD 54.9% pre-game — final LAD 6–CHC 0
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers at Red Sox Mon, Apr 20 | BOS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | BOS 8–DET 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Guardians Mon, Apr 20 | CLE 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CLE 2–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Reds at Rays Mon, Apr 20 | TB 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TB 1–CIN 6 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Marlins Mon, Apr 20 | MIA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | MIA 5–STL 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Nationals Mon, Apr 20 | WSH 61.7% · ATL 38.3% | WSH 4–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Phillies at Cubs Mon, Apr 20 | CHC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | CHC 5–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Royals Mon, Apr 20 | KC 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | KC 5–BAL 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Rockies Tue, Apr 21 | COL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | COL 3–LAD 12 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Angels Tue, Apr 21 | LAA 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | LAA 2–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Mariners Tue, Apr 21 | SEA 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | SEA 4–OAK 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Guardians Tue, Apr 21 | CLE 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CLE 8–HOU 5 | Hit |
| Brewers at Tigers Tue, Apr 21 | DET 52.9% · MIL 47.1% | DET 4–MIL 12 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Marlins Tue, Apr 21 | MIA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | MIA 3–STL 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Rays Tue, Apr 21 | TB 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TB 6–CIN 12 | Miss |
| Braves at Nationals Tue, Apr 21 | WSH 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | WSH 11–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Yankees at Red Sox Tue, Apr 21 | BOS 52.9% · NYY 47.1% | BOS 0–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Mets Tue, Apr 21 | NYM 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | NYM 3–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Cubs Tue, Apr 21 | CHC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | CHC 7–PHI 4 | Hit |
| Orioles at Royals Tue, Apr 21 | KC 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | KC 6–BAL 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rangers Wed, Apr 22 | TEX 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | TEX 5–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Rockies Wed, Apr 22 | COL 52.9% · SD 47.1% | COL 0–SD 1 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Angels Wed, Apr 22 | LAA 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | LAA 2–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Diamondbacks Wed, Apr 22 | ARI 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | ARI 5–CWS 11 | Miss |
| Athletics at Mariners Wed, Apr 22 | SEA 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | SEA 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Wed, Apr 22 | SF 56.8% · LAD 43.2% | SF 3–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Marlins Wed, Apr 22 | MIA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | MIA 4–STL 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Guardians Wed, Apr 22 | CLE 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CLE 0–HOU 2 | Miss |
| Reds at Rays Wed, Apr 22 | TB 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TB 6–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Royals Wed, Apr 22 | KC 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | KC 6–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Angels Wed, Apr 22 | LAA 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | LAA 7–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Mariners Wed, Apr 22 | SEA 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | SEA 5–OAK 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Tigers Wed, Apr 22 | DET 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | DET 5–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Red Sox Wed, Apr 22 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 1–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Braves at Nationals Wed, Apr 22 | WSH 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | WSH 6–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Mets Wed, Apr 22 | NYM 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | NYM 3–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Cubs Wed, Apr 22 | CHC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | CHC 7–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rangers Thu, Apr 23 | TEX 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | TEX 4–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Padres at Rockies Thu, Apr 23 | COL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | COL 8–SD 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Diamondbacks Thu, Apr 23 | ARI 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | ARI 11–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Giants Thu, Apr 23 | SF 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SF 3–LAD 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Nationals Thu, Apr 23 | WSH 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | WSH 2–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Tigers Thu, Apr 23 | DET 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | DET 5–MIL 4 | Hit |
| Phillies at Cubs Thu, Apr 23 | CHC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | CHC 8–PHI 7 | Hit |
| Padres at Rockies Thu, Apr 23 | COL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | COL 8–SD 10 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Diamondbacks Thu, Apr 23 | ARI 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | ARI 1–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Thu, Apr 23 | SF 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SF 0–LAD 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Thu, Apr 23 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Mets Thu, Apr 23 | NYM 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | NYM 10–MIN 8 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rangers Fri, Apr 24 | TEX 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | TEX 6–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Reds Fri, Apr 24 | CIN 56.8% · DET 43.2% | CIN 9–DET 8 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Orioles Fri, Apr 24 | BAL 56.8% · BOS 43.2% | BAL 10–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Blue Jays Fri, Apr 24 | TOR 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | TOR 6–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Rays Fri, Apr 24 | TB 56.8% · MIN 43.2% | TB 6–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Mets Fri, Apr 24 | NYM 54.9% · COL 45.1% | NYM 3–COL 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Braves Fri, Apr 24 | ATL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | ATL 5–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Brewers Fri, Apr 24 | MIL 61.7% · PIT 38.3% | MIL 0–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Chicago White Sox Fri, Apr 24 | CWS 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CWS 5–WSH 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Royals Fri, Apr 24 | KC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | KC 6–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Rangers Sat, Apr 25 | TEX 52.9% · OAK 47.1% | TEX 1–OAK 8 | Miss |
| Yankees at Astros Sat, Apr 25 | HOU 56.8% · NYY 43.2% | HOU 4–NYY 12 | Miss |
| Mariners at Cardinals Sat, Apr 25 | STL 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | STL 2–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Dodgers Sat, Apr 25 | LAD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | LAD 4–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Marlins at Giants Sat, Apr 25 | SF 52.9% · MIA 47.1% | SF 4–MIA 9 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Orioles Sat, Apr 25 | BAL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | BAL 1–BOS 17 | Miss |
| Mariners at Cardinals Sat, Apr 25 | STL 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | STL 9–SEA 11 | Miss |
| Guardians at Blue Jays Sat, Apr 25 | TOR 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | TOR 5–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Giants Sat, Apr 25 | SF 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | SF 6–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Rays Sat, Apr 25 | TB 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | TB 6–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Chicago White Sox Sat, Apr 25 | CWS 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CWS 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 25 | ARI 54.9% · SD 45.1% | ARI 4–SD 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Rangers Sat, Apr 25 | TEX 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | TEX 4–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Royals Sat, Apr 25 | KC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | KC 12–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Astros Sat, Apr 25 | HOU 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | HOU 3–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Sat, Apr 25 | MIL 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | MIL 3–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Reds Sat, Apr 25 | CIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | CIN 9–DET 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Dodgers Sat, Apr 25 | LAD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | LAD 12–CHC 4 | Hit |
| Phillies at Braves Sat, Apr 25 | ATL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | ATL 5–PHI 8 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Orioles Sun, Apr 26 | BAL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | BAL 3–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Braves Sun, Apr 26 | ATL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | ATL 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Blue Jays Sun, Apr 26 | TOR 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | TOR 4–CLE 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Rays Sun, Apr 26 | TB 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | TB 4–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Reds Sun, Apr 26 | CIN 54.9% · DET 45.1% | CIN 3–DET 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Mets Sun, Apr 26 | NYM 54.9% · COL 45.1% | NYM 1–COL 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Astros Sun, Apr 26 | HOU 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | HOU 7–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Chicago White Sox Sun, Apr 26 | CWS 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CWS 1–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Sun, Apr 26 | MIL 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | MIL 5–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Cardinals Sun, Apr 26 | STL 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | STL 2–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Rangers Sun, Apr 26 | TEX 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | TEX 1–OAK 2 | Miss |
| Marlins at Giants Sun, Apr 26 | SF 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | SF 6–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Sun, Apr 26 | ARI 54.9% · SD 45.1% | ARI 12–SD 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Dodgers Sun, Apr 26 | LAD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | LAD 6–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Royals Sun, Apr 26 | KC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | KC 11–LAA 9 | Hit |
| Rockies at Mets Sun, Apr 26 | NYM 54.9% · COL 45.1% | NYM 0–COL 3 | Miss |
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