MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-03-30 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 53% across 92 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 57% — final WSH 6–LAD 13
- Home Field Advantage (favors WSH)
- Rest Days (favors WSH)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Royals Mon, Mar 30 | KC 55% • MIN 45% | KC 3–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Mon, Mar 30 | BAL 55% • TEX 45% | BAL 2–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Mon, Mar 30 | MIA 55% • CWS 45% | MIA 4–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Mon, Mar 30 | CIN 55% • PIT 45% | CIN 2–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Phillies Mon, Mar 30 | PHI 55% • WSH 45% | PHI 2–WSH 13 | Miss |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Mon, Mar 30 | TOR 55% • COL 45% | TOR 5–COL 14 | Miss |
| Athletics at Braves Mon, Mar 30 | ATL 55% • OAK 45% | ATL 4–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Brewers Mon, Mar 30 | MIL 55% • TB 45% | MIL 2–TB 3 | Miss |
| Angels at Cubs Mon, Mar 30 | CHC 55% • LAA 45% | CHC 7–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Cardinals Mon, Mar 30 | STL 55% • NYM 45% | STL 2–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Astros Tue, Mar 31 | HOU 55% • BOS 45% | HOU 8–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Tue, Mar 31 | SD 55% • SF 45% | SD 2–SF 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Mariners Tue, Mar 31 | SEA 53% • NYY 47% | SEA 2–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Guardians at Dodgers Tue, Mar 31 | LAD 57% • CLE 43% | LAD 2–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 31 | ARI 55% • DET 45% | ARI 9–DET 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Tue, Mar 31 | BAL 55% • TEX 45% | BAL 5–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Tue, Mar 31 | PHI 55% • WSH 45% | PHI 3–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Tue, Mar 31 | MIA 55% • CWS 45% | MIA 9–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Tue, Mar 31 | CIN 55% • PIT 45% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Tue, Mar 31 | TOR 55% • COL 45% | TOR 5–COL 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Braves Tue, Mar 31 | ATL 55% • OAK 45% | ATL 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Brewers Tue, Mar 31 | MIL 55% • TB 45% | MIL 6–TB 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Cubs Tue, Mar 31 | CHC 55% • LAA 45% | CHC 0–LAA 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Cardinals Tue, Mar 31 | STL 55% • NYM 45% | STL 3–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Astros Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 55% • BOS 45% | HOU 9–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mariners Wed, Apr 1 | SEA 55% • NYY 45% | SEA 0–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Wed, Apr 1 | ARI 55% • DET 45% | ARI 7–DET 5 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Wed, Apr 1 | SD 55% • SF 45% | SD 3–SF 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Dodgers Wed, Apr 1 | LAD 55% • CLE 45% | LAD 4–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Braves Wed, Apr 1 | ATL 55% • OAK 45% | ATL 5–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Wed, Apr 1 | BAL 55% • TEX 45% | BAL 8–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Wed, Apr 1 | CIN 55% • PIT 45% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Wed, Apr 1 | PHI 55% • WSH 45% | PHI 6–WSH 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Wed, Apr 1 | TOR 55% • COL 45% | TOR 1–COL 2 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Wed, Apr 1 | MIA 55% • CWS 45% | MIA 10–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Cardinals Wed, Apr 1 | STL 55% • NYM 45% | STL 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Brewers Wed, Apr 1 | MIL 55% • TB 45% | MIL 8–TB 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Astros Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 55% • BOS 45% | HOU 6–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Cubs Wed, Apr 1 | CHC 55% • LAA 45% | CHC 6–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Wed, Apr 1 | ARI 55% • DET 45% | ARI 1–DET 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Wed, Apr 1 | SD 55% • SF 45% | SD 7–SF 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mariners Wed, Apr 1 | SEA 55% • NYY 45% | SEA 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Royals Wed, Apr 1 | KC 55% • MIN 45% | KC 13–MIN 9 | Hit |
| Guardians at Dodgers Thu, Apr 2 | LAD 55% • CLE 45% | LAD 1–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Royals Thu, Apr 2 | KC 55% • MIN 45% | KC 1–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Fri, Apr 3 | ARI 55% • ATL 45% | ARI 2–ATL 17 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Fri, Apr 3 | SF 55% • NYM 45% | SF 7–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Nationals Fri, Apr 3 | WSH 57% • LAD 43% | WSH 6–LAD 13 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Tigers Fri, Apr 3 | DET 55% • STL 45% | DET 4–STL 0 | Hit |
| Marlins at Yankees Fri, Apr 3 | NYY 53% • MIA 47% | NYY 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Red Sox Fri, Apr 3 | BOS 57% • SD 43% | BOS 5–SD 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Fri, Apr 3 | CWS 55% • TOR 45% | CWS 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Reds at Rangers Fri, Apr 3 | TEX 55% • CIN 45% | TEX 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Rockies Fri, Apr 3 | COL 55% • PHI 45% | COL 1–PHI 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Guardians Fri, Apr 3 | CLE 53% • CHC 47% | CLE 4–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Pirates Fri, Apr 3 | PIT 55% • BAL 45% | PIT 5–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Twins Fri, Apr 3 | MIN 53% • TB 47% | MIN 10–TB 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sat, Apr 4 | LAA 55% • SEA 45% | LAA 1–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Apr 4 | OAK 55% • HOU 45% | OAK 11–HOU 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 4 | ARI 55% • ATL 45% | ARI 0–ATL 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Sat, Apr 4 | SF 55% • NYM 45% | SF 3–NYM 10 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Tigers Sat, Apr 4 | DET 55% • STL 45% | DET 11–STL 6 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Sat, Apr 4 | CWS 55% • TOR 45% | CWS 6–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Royals Sat, Apr 4 | KC 54% • MIL 46% | KC 2–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sat, Apr 4 | PIT 55% • BAL 45% | PIT 3–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Apr 4 | OAK 55% • HOU 45% | OAK 0–HOU 11 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Nationals Sat, Apr 4 | WSH 55% • LAD 45% | WSH 5–LAD 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Red Sox Sat, Apr 4 | BOS 55% • SD 45% | BOS 2–SD 3 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Sat, Apr 4 | NYY 55% • MIA 45% | NYY 9–MIA 7 | Hit |
| Reds at Rangers Sat, Apr 4 | TEX 55% • CIN 45% | TEX 0–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Brewers at Royals Sat, Apr 4 | KC 54% • MIL 46% | KC 8–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Twins Sat, Apr 4 | MIN 55% • TB 45% | MIN 1–TB 7 | Miss |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 4 | ARI 55% • ATL 45% | ARI 2–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Rockies Sun, Apr 5 | COL 55% • PHI 45% | COL 1–PHI 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Sun, Apr 5 | SF 55% • NYM 45% | SF 0–NYM 9 | Miss |
| Mariners at Angels Sun, Apr 5 | LAA 55% • SEA 45% | LAA 1–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Guardians Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 55% • CHC 45% | CLE 0–CHC 1 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Sun, Apr 5 | NYY 55% • MIA 45% | NYY 6–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Red Sox Sun, Apr 5 | BOS 55% • SD 45% | BOS 6–SD 8 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Nationals Sun, Apr 5 | WSH 55% • LAD 45% | WSH 6–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sun, Apr 5 | PIT 55% • BAL 45% | PIT 8–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Sun, Apr 5 | CWS 55% • TOR 45% | CWS 3–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Royals Sun, Apr 5 | KC 55% • MIL 45% | KC 5–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Rays at Twins Sun, Apr 5 | MIN 55% • TB 45% | MIN 1–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Rangers Sun, Apr 5 | TEX 55% • CIN 45% | TEX 1–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Phillies at Rockies Sun, Apr 5 | COL 55% • PHI 45% | COL 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Giants Sun, Apr 5 | SF 55% • NYM 45% | SF 2–NYM 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Apr 5 | OAK 55% • HOU 45% | OAK 12–HOU 10 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sun, Apr 5 | LAA 55% • SEA 45% | LAA 8–SEA 7 | Hit |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sun, Apr 5 | ARI 55% • ATL 45% | ARI 6–ATL 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Guardians Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 55% • CHC 45% | CLE 6–CHC 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Tigers Sun, Apr 5 | DET 55% • STL 45% | DET 3–STL 5 | Miss |