MLB2026 season
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Thu, Jun 4, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
50%
3 of 6 decided games
Meetings graded
6
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Injuries — Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.