MLB2026 season
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Jun 3, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- MIA at WSHWed, Jun 3, 2026WSH 57%MIA 4–1
- MIA at WSHTue, Jun 2, 2026WSH 57%MIA 7–3
- MIA at WSHMon, Jun 1, 2026WSH 57%MIA 7–3
- WSH at MIASun, May 10, 2026MIA 55%MIA 2–5
- WSH at MIASat, May 9, 2026MIA 55%MIA 7–8
- WSH at MIAFri, May 8, 2026MIA 55%WSH 3–2
- WSH at MIAFri, Mar 20, 2026MIA 55%MIA 2–3
- MIA at WSHSat, Mar 14, 2026WSH 55%MIA 4–1
- WSH at MIATue, Mar 10, 2026MIA 56%WSH 7–5
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
33%
3 of 9 decided games
Meetings graded
9
2026
Correct calls
3
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Miami Marlins
- Injuries — Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage — Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
Washington Nationals
- Injuries — Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Nationals are 31-39 at home this season; Mets are 34-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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