MLB2026 season
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Aug 2, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- MIA at NYMSun, Aug 2, 2026NYM 55%MIA 2–0
- MIA at NYMSat, Aug 1, 2026NYM 55%MIA 6–2
- MIA at NYMFri, Jul 31, 2026NYM 55%MIA 5–2
- MIA at NYMThu, Jul 30, 2026NYM 55%NYM 2–4
- MIA at NYMSun, May 31, 2026NYM 55%NYM 1–10
- MIA at NYMSat, May 30, 2026NYM 55%NYM 1–6
- MIA at NYMFri, May 29, 2026NYM 55%NYM 7–9
- NYM at MIASun, May 24, 2026MIA 55%MIA 0–4
- NYM at MIASat, May 23, 2026MIA 55%MIA 1–4
- NYM at MIAFri, May 22, 2026MIA 55%MIA 1–2
- NYM at MIASun, Mar 22, 2026MIA 55%MIA 3–4
- NYM at MIATue, Mar 17, 2026MIA 55%Tie 5–5
- MIA at NYMFri, Mar 13, 2026—MIA 1–0
- NYM at MIAFri, Mar 6, 2026—MIA 0–2
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
73%
8 of 11 decided games
Meetings graded
12
1 ties
Correct calls
8
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Miami Marlins
- Injuries — Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage — Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
New York Mets
- Defensive Efficiency — Mets pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
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