NHL report card: week of 2026-05-11 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
37.5%
hit rate
0.269
Brier score
3 of 8 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Canadiens at SabresBUF 56.3% pre-game — final BUF 3–MTL 6
- Sabres at CanadiensMTL 56.3% pre-game — final MTL 2–BUF 3
- Avalanche at WildMIN 56.3% pre-game — final MIN 2–COL 5
- Sabres at CanadiensMTL 55.6% pre-game — final MTL 3–BUF 8
- Golden Knights at DucksANA 54.9% pre-game — final ANA 1–VGK 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Wild at AvalancheCOL 56.3% pre-game — final COL 4–MIN 3
- Ducks at Golden KnightsVGK 56.0% pre-game — final VGK 3–ANA 2
- Golden Knights at DucksANA 54.9% pre-game — final ANA 4–VGK 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights at Ducks Mon, May 11 | ANA 54.9% · VGK 45.1% | ANA 4–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Wild Tue, May 12 | MIN 56.3% · COL 43.7% | MIN 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Tue, May 12 | MTL 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | MTL 2–BUF 3 | Miss |
| Ducks at Golden Knights Wed, May 13 | VGK 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | VGK 3–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Wild at Avalanche Thu, May 14 | COL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | COL 4–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Sabres Thu, May 14 | BUF 56.3% · MTL 43.7% | BUF 3–MTL 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Ducks Fri, May 15 | ANA 54.9% · VGK 45.1% | ANA 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Sun, May 17 | MTL 55.6% · BUF 44.4% | MTL 3–BUF 8 | Miss |
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