NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-04-27 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 50% across 16 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 60% — final TBL 1–MTL 2
- Home Field Advantage (favors TBL)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors TBL)
- Recent Form (favors TBL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers at Ducks Mon, Apr 27 | ANA 55% • EDM 45% | ANA 4–EDM 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Penguins Mon, Apr 27 | PIT 56% • PHI 44% | PIT 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Tue, Apr 28 | UTA 58% • VGK 42% | UTA 4–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Sabres Tue, Apr 28 | BUF 56% • BOS 44% | BUF 1–BOS 2 | Miss |
| Wild at Stars Wed, Apr 29 | DAL 56% • MIN 44% | DAL 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Oilers Wed, Apr 29 | EDM 56% • ANA 44% | EDM 4–ANA 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Wed, Apr 29 | TBL 60% • MTL 40% | TBL 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Apr 29 | PHI 56% • PIT 44% | PHI 1–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Thu, Apr 30 | VGK 54% • UTA 46% | VGK 5–UTA 4 | Hit |
| Stars at Wild Thu, Apr 30 | MIN 56% • DAL 44% | MIN 5–DAL 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Fri, May 1 | ANA 55% • EDM 45% | ANA 5–EDM 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Fri, May 1 | MTL 53% • TBL 47% | MTL 0–TBL 1 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Fri, May 1 | BOS 56% • BUF 44% | BOS 1–BUF 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Sat, May 2 | UTA 58% • VGK 42% | UTA 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Hurricanes Sun, May 3 | CAR 55% • PHI 45% | CAR 3–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Sun, May 3 | TBL 60% • MTL 40% | TBL 1–MTL 2 | Miss |