NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-04-20 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 54% across 24 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 56% — final BOS 1–BUF 6
- Home Field Advantage (favors BOS)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Mon, Apr 20 | VGK 53% • UTA 47% | VGK 4–UTA 2 | Hit |
| Flyers at Penguins Mon, Apr 20 | PIT 56% • PHI 44% | PIT 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Senators at Hurricanes Mon, Apr 20 | CAR 56% • OTT 44% | CAR 3–OTT 2 | Hit |
| Wild at Stars Tue, Apr 21 | DAL 56% • MIN 44% | DAL 4–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Oilers Tue, Apr 21 | EDM 56% • ANA 44% | EDM 4–ANA 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Tue, Apr 21 | TBL 60% • MTL 40% | TBL 3–MTL 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Sabres Tue, Apr 21 | BUF 56% • BOS 44% | BUF 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Wed, Apr 22 | VGK 54% • UTA 46% | VGK 2–UTA 3 | Miss |
| Kings at Avalanche Wed, Apr 22 | COL 66% • LAK 34% | COL 2–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Apr 22 | PHI 56% • PIT 44% | PHI 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Wild Thu, Apr 23 | MIN 56% • DAL 44% | MIN 3–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Oilers Thu, Apr 23 | EDM 56% • ANA 44% | EDM 4–ANA 6 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Thu, Apr 23 | BOS 56% • BUF 44% | BOS 1–BUF 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Senators Thu, Apr 23 | OTT 56% • CAR 44% | OTT 1–CAR 2 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Kings Fri, Apr 24 | LAK 46% • COL 54% | LAK 2–COL 4 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Fri, Apr 24 | MTL 53% • TBL 47% | MTL 3–TBL 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Sat, Apr 25 | UTA 58% • VGK 42% | UTA 4–VGK 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Sat, Apr 25 | ANA 55% • EDM 45% | ANA 7–EDM 4 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Senators Sat, Apr 25 | OTT 56% • CAR 44% | OTT 2–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Wild Sat, Apr 25 | MIN 56% • DAL 44% | MIN 3–DAL 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Flyers Sun, Apr 26 | PHI 56% • PIT 44% | PHI 2–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Sun, Apr 26 | BOS 56% • BUF 44% | BOS 1–BUF 6 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Kings Sun, Apr 26 | LAK 46% • COL 54% | LAK 1–COL 5 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Sun, Apr 26 | MTL 53% • TBL 47% | MTL 2–TBL 3 | Miss |