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Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals

NHLregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Capitals logo
Capitals
Washington
0
vs
Flyers logo
Flyers
Philadelphia
0
WSH 64%36% PHI
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Washington Capitals 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Capitals:

  • Home Field Advantage. Capitals are 6-2 at home this season; Flyers are 1-7 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
  • Recent Form. Capitals (5-4) in better form than Flyers (3-6)
  • ELO Rating. Capitals ELO 1555 vs Flyers ELO 1474 (diff: +81)

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VenueCapital One Arena
Washington, DC

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Flyers (away)
Capitals (home)
36%
Win probability
64%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Game Preview

Flyers at Capitals

The Flyers visit the Capitals at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Capitals a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Flyers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Capitals (medium): Capitals are 6-2 at home this season; Flyers are 1-7 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
  • Recent Form favors the Capitals (low): Capitals (5-4) in better form than Flyers (3-6)
  • ELO Rating favors the Capitals (low): Capitals ELO 1555 vs Flyers ELO 1474 (diff: +81)
Capitals64%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors WSH

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
  • Recent FormFavors Washington Capitals
  • ELO RatingFavors Washington Capitals
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

PHI
WSH
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
ELO Rating
Favours PHI|Favours WSH

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/23/2026, 8:50:02 AM

Key Players

Flyers

Dan VladarG
Joseph WollG
Sean CouturierC
Denver BarkeyC
Christian DvorakC

Capitals

Charlie LindgrenG
Logan ThompsonG
Boone JennerC
Ethen FrankC
Dylan StromeC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Capitals has a 64% win probability, while Flyers has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.

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