NBA report card: week of 2026-05-25 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
40.0%
hit rate
0.292
Brier score
2 of 5 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Spurs at ThunderOKC 69.7% pre-game — final OKC 103–SAS 111
- Thunder at SpursOKC 59.4% pre-game — final SAS 118–OKC 91
- Thunder at SpursOKC 59.4% pre-game — final SAS 103–OKC 82
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Spurs at ThunderOKC 69.7% pre-game — final OKC 127–SAS 114
- Knicks at CavaliersNYK 58.1% pre-game — final CLE 93–NYK 130
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder at Spurs Mon, May 25 | SAS 40.6% · OKC 59.4% | SAS 103–OKC 82 | Miss |
| Knicks at Cavaliers Tue, May 26 | CLE 41.9% · NYK 58.1% | CLE 93–NYK 130 | Hit |
| Spurs at Thunder Wed, May 27 | OKC 69.7% · SAS 30.3% | OKC 127–SAS 114 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Fri, May 29 | SAS 40.6% · OKC 59.4% | SAS 118–OKC 91 | Miss |
| Spurs at Thunder Sun, May 31 | OKC 69.7% · SAS 30.3% | OKC 103–SAS 111 | Miss |
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