Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (56-15) in better form than Spurs (53-18)
- ELO Rating. Spurs ELO 1658 vs Thunder ELO 1679 (diff: -21)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Thunder 118-91.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 59% confidence, but the Spurs pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Thunder (56-15) in better form than Spurs (53-18)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.7 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (56-15) in better form than Spurs (53-18)
Offensive Efficiency
Similar offensive efficiency (118.8 vs 118.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Thunder
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 41% win probability, while Thunder has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.