NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-05-04 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 79% across 14 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 69% — final SAS 102–MIN 104
- Defensive Efficiency (favors SAS)
- Home Field Advantage (favors SAS)
- Recent Form (favors SAS)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers at Knicks Tue, May 5 | NYK 80% • PHI 20% | NYK 137–PHI 98 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Tue, May 5 | SAS 69% • MIN 31% | SAS 102–MIN 104 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Tue, May 5 | DET 71% • CLE 29% | DET 111–CLE 101 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Wed, May 6 | OKC 83% • LAL 17% | OKC 108–LAL 90 | Hit |
| 76ers at Knicks Wed, May 6 | NYK 80% • PHI 20% | NYK 108–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Spurs Thu, May 7 | SAS 70% • MIN 30% | SAS 133–MIN 95 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Pistons Thu, May 7 | DET 70% • CLE 30% | DET 107–CLE 97 | Hit |
| Lakers at Thunder Fri, May 8 | OKC 84% • LAL 16% | OKC 125–LAL 107 | Hit |
| Knicks at 76ers Fri, May 8 | PHI 27% • NYK 73% | PHI 94–NYK 108 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sat, May 9 | MIN 40% • SAS 60% | MIN 108–SAS 115 | Hit |
| Pistons at Cavaliers Sat, May 9 | CLE 40% • DET 60% | CLE 116–DET 109 | Miss |
| Thunder at Lakers Sun, May 10 | LAL 24% • OKC 76% | LAL 108–OKC 131 | Hit |
| Knicks at 76ers Sun, May 10 | PHI 27% • NYK 73% | PHI 114–NYK 144 | Hit |
| Spurs at Timberwolves Sun, May 10 | MIN 40% • SAS 60% | MIN 114–SAS 109 | Miss |