San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs head-to-head
San Antonio Spurs 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (112.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Suns ELO 1494 vs Spurs ELO 1606 (diff: -112)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 63% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 66% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 83% (+4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: SAS 76% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Spurs at Suns
The Spurs visit the Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Spurs a 79% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Suns to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Spurs (high): Spurs defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Spurs (high): Spurs offense (112.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Suns (medium): Suns are 2-1 at home this season; Spurs are 1-2 on the road
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (112.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (107.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Spurs
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game62%GSW win probability
- Next game78%LAC win probability
San Antonio Spurs
- Previous game56%DAL win probability
- Next game60%SAS win probability
Other games on Nov 9, 2026
- 88%DET win probability
- 59%ATL win probability
- 51%CHA win probability
- 88%TOR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 21% win probability, while Spurs has a 79% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.