Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers head-to-head
Dallas Mavericks 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mavericks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Mavericks defense (118.3 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.5 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 46% (−8)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 59% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 53% (−1)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DAL 54% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Pacers at Mavericks
The Pacers visit the Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Mavericks a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Pacers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (medium): Mavericks defense (118.3 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Pacers (low): Pacers offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (112.3 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Mavericks are 0-4 at home this season; Pacers are 1-1 on the road
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Pacers
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game56%DAL win probability
- Next game87%MIN win probability
Indiana Pacers
- Previous game90%IND win probability
- Next game72%WSH win probability
Other games on Nov 9, 2026
- 88%DET win probability
- 59%ATL win probability
- 51%CHA win probability
- 88%TOR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 54% win probability, while Pacers has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.