Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns head-to-head
Houston Rockets 78% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Suns ELO 1485 vs Rockets ELO 1565 (diff: -81)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 62% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 62% (−16)
- If the injury edge were neutral: HOU 84% (+6)
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 76% (−2)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Rockets at Suns
The Rockets visit the Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Rockets a 78% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Suns to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- Injuries favors the Suns (medium): Suns healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Rockets 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Suns have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Rockets have 3.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- InjuriesFavors Phoenix Suns
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Rockets
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Injury Report
Suns
Rockets
Key Players
Rockets
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game54%ORL win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Houston Rockets
- Previous game79%MIN win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Other games on Nov 8, 2026
- 90%ATL win probability
- 64%OKC win probability
- 54%CLE win probability
- 53%ORL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 22% win probability, while Rockets has a 78% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.