Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets head-to-head
Denver Nuggets 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (128.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Bulls ELO 1453 vs Nuggets ELO 1549 (diff: -96)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency were neutral: DEN 41% (−20)
- If the offensive efficiency were neutral: DEN 67% (+6)
- If the home-field advantage were neutral: DEN 64% (+3)
- If the rating gap were neutral: DEN 57% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Nuggets at Bulls
The Nuggets visit the Bulls at United Center in Chicago, IL in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Nuggets a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Bulls to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Nuggets (high): Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (128.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Bulls (medium): Bulls offense (114.7 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bulls (medium): Bulls are 2-2 at home this season; Nuggets are 2-2 on the road
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Bulls
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Nuggets
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Nuggets defense (115.5 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (128.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Bulls offense (114.7 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (112.5 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Bulls turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Nuggets
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bulls
- Previous game67%WSH win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Denver Nuggets
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 22, 2026
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- 50%DAL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 39% win probability, while Nuggets has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.