MLB report card: week of 2026-04-13 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
55.8%
hit rate
0.247
Brier score
53 of 95 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Reds at TwinsMIN 56.8% pre-game — final MIN 1–CIN 2
- Braves at PhilliesPHI 56.8% pre-game — final PHI 0–ATL 9
- Braves at PhilliesPHI 54.9% pre-game — final PHI 2–ATL 4
- Tigers at Red SoxBOS 54.9% pre-game — final BOS 2–DET 6
- Blue Jays at DiamondbacksARI 54.9% pre-game — final ARI 4–TOR 10
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Blue Jays at DiamondbacksARI 56.8% pre-game — final ARI 6–TOR 3
- Tigers at Red SoxBOS 56.8% pre-game — final BOS 1–DET 0
- Mariners at PadresSD 56.8% pre-game — final SD 4–SEA 1
- Rangers at MarinersSEA 54.9% pre-game — final SEA 5–TEX 2
- Dodgers at RockiesCOL 54.9% pre-game — final COL 9–LAD 6
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros at Mariners Mon, Apr 13 | SEA 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | SEA 6–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Orioles Mon, Apr 13 | BAL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | BAL 9–ARI 7 | Hit |
| Nationals at Pirates Mon, Apr 13 | PIT 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PIT 16–WSH 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Phillies Mon, Apr 13 | PHI 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | PHI 13–CHC 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Yankees Mon, Apr 13 | NYY 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | NYY 11–LAA 10 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Mon, Apr 13 | ATL 47.9% · MIA 52.1% | ATL 4–MIA 10 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Twins Mon, Apr 13 | MIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | MIN 13–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Guardians at Cardinals Mon, Apr 13 | STL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | STL 3–CLE 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Athletics Tue, Apr 14 | OAK 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | OAK 1–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Dodgers Tue, Apr 14 | LAD 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | LAD 4–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Orioles Tue, Apr 14 | BAL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | BAL 3–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Tue, Apr 14 | DET 54.9% · KC 45.1% | DET 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Phillies Tue, Apr 14 | PHI 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | PHI 4–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Nationals at Pirates Tue, Apr 14 | PIT 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PIT 4–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Reds Tue, Apr 14 | CIN 54.9% · SF 45.1% | CIN 2–SF 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Yankees Tue, Apr 14 | NYY 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | NYY 1–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Braves Tue, Apr 14 | ATL 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | ATL 6–MIA 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Twins Tue, Apr 14 | MIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | MIN 6–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Chicago White Sox Tue, Apr 14 | CWS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CWS 5–TB 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Brewers Tue, Apr 14 | MIL 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIL 7–TOR 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Cardinals Tue, Apr 14 | STL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | STL 6–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Astros Wed, Apr 15 | HOU 52.9% · COL 47.1% | HOU 7–COL 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Athletics Wed, Apr 15 | OAK 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | OAK 2–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Padres Wed, Apr 15 | SD 56.8% · SEA 43.2% | SD 4–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Dodgers Wed, Apr 15 | LAD 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | LAD 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Orioles Wed, Apr 15 | BAL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | BAL 5–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Cardinals Wed, Apr 15 | STL 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | STL 5–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Twins Wed, Apr 15 | MIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | MIN 5–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Wed, Apr 15 | DET 54.9% · KC 45.1% | DET 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Phillies Wed, Apr 15 | PHI 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | PHI 2–CHC 11 | Miss |
| Giants at Reds Wed, Apr 15 | CIN 54.9% · SF 45.1% | CIN 8–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Pirates Wed, Apr 15 | PIT 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PIT 2–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Yankees Wed, Apr 15 | NYY 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | NYY 5–LAA 4 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Wed, Apr 15 | ATL 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | ATL 6–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Brewers Wed, Apr 15 | MIL 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIL 2–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Chicago White Sox Wed, Apr 15 | CWS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CWS 3–TB 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Astros Thu, Apr 16 | HOU 54.9% · COL 45.1% | HOU 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Athletics Thu, Apr 16 | OAK 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | OAK 6–TEX 5 | Hit |
| Mariners at Padres Thu, Apr 16 | SD 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | SD 7–SEA 6 | Hit |
| Mets at Dodgers Thu, Apr 16 | LAD 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | LAD 8–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Pirates Thu, Apr 16 | PIT 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PIT 7–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Giants at Reds Thu, Apr 16 | CIN 54.9% · SF 45.1% | CIN 0–SF 3 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Thu, Apr 16 | DET 54.9% · KC 45.1% | DET 10–KC 9 | Hit |
| Angels at Yankees Thu, Apr 16 | NYY 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | NYY 4–LAA 11 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Brewers Thu, Apr 16 | MIL 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIL 2–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Chicago White Sox Thu, Apr 16 | CWS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CWS 3–TB 5 | Miss |
| Rangers at Athletics Thu, Apr 16 | OAK 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | OAK 6–TEX 9 | Miss |
| Orioles at Guardians Thu, Apr 16 | CLE 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CLE 4–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Astros Fri, Apr 17 | HOU 54.9% · COL 45.1% | HOU 2–COL 3 | Miss |
| Mariners at Padres Fri, Apr 17 | SD 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | SD 5–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Cubs Fri, Apr 17 | CHC 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CHC 12–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Orioles at Guardians Fri, Apr 17 | CLE 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CLE 4–BAL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Phillies Fri, Apr 17 | PHI 56.8% · ATL 43.2% | PHI 0–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Rays at Pirates Fri, Apr 17 | PIT 54.9% · TB 45.1% | PIT 5–TB 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Nationals Fri, Apr 17 | WSH 54.9% · SF 45.1% | WSH 5–SF 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Yankees Fri, Apr 17 | NYY 54.9% · KC 45.1% | NYY 4–KC 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Marlins Fri, Apr 17 | MIA 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | MIA 5–MIL 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Red Sox Fri, Apr 17 | BOS 56.8% · DET 43.2% | BOS 1–DET 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Astros Sat, Apr 18 | HOU 52.9% · STL 47.1% | HOU 4–STL 9 | Miss |
| Reds at Twins Sat, Apr 18 | MIN 56.8% · CIN 43.2% | MIN 1–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Rockies Sat, Apr 18 | COL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | COL 1–LAD 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Angels Sat, Apr 18 | LAA 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAA 8–SD 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 18 | ARI 56.8% · TOR 43.2% | ARI 6–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Sat, Apr 18 | OAK 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | OAK 2–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Mariners Sat, Apr 18 | SEA 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | SEA 0–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Yankees Sat, Apr 18 | NYY 54.9% · KC 45.1% | NYY 13–KC 4 | Hit |
| Reds at Twins Sat, Apr 18 | MIN 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIN 4–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Mets at Cubs Sat, Apr 18 | CHC 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CHC 4–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Pirates Sat, Apr 18 | PIT 54.9% · TB 45.1% | PIT 7–TB 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Sat, Apr 18 | OAK 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | OAK 7–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Nationals Sat, Apr 18 | WSH 54.9% · SF 45.1% | WSH 6–SF 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Red Sox Sat, Apr 18 | BOS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | BOS 1–DET 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Marlins Sat, Apr 18 | MIA 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | MIA 2–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Guardians Sat, Apr 18 | CLE 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CLE 4–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Astros Sat, Apr 18 | HOU 54.9% · STL 45.1% | HOU 5–STL 7 | Miss |
| Rangers at Mariners Sat, Apr 18 | SEA 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | SEA 7–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Phillies Sat, Apr 18 | PHI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | PHI 1–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Diamondbacks Sun, Apr 19 | ARI 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | ARI 6–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Rockies Sun, Apr 19 | COL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | COL 4–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Angels Sun, Apr 19 | LAA 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAA 1–SD 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Yankees Sun, Apr 19 | NYY 54.9% · KC 45.1% | NYY 7–KC 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Pirates Sun, Apr 19 | PIT 54.9% · TB 45.1% | PIT 6–TB 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Nationals Sun, Apr 19 | WSH 54.9% · SF 45.1% | WSH 3–SF 0 | Hit |
| Orioles at Guardians Sun, Apr 19 | CLE 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | CLE 8–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Marlins Sun, Apr 19 | MIA 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | MIA 5–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Astros Sun, Apr 19 | HOU 54.9% · STL 45.1% | HOU 5–STL 7 | Miss |
| Reds at Twins Sun, Apr 19 | MIN 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIN 4–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Cubs Sun, Apr 19 | CHC 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CHC 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Rockies Sun, Apr 19 | COL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | COL 9–LAD 6 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Sun, Apr 19 | OAK 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | OAK 4–CWS 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Angels Sun, Apr 19 | LAA 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAA 1–SD 2 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Diamondbacks Sun, Apr 19 | ARI 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | ARI 4–TOR 10 | Miss |
| Rangers at Mariners Sun, Apr 19 | SEA 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | SEA 5–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Red Sox Sun, Apr 19 | BOS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | BOS 2–DET 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Phillies Sun, Apr 19 | PHI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | PHI 2–ATL 4 | Miss |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.