MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-04-06 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 54% across 94 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 64% — final PHI 4–ARI 5
- Rest Days (favors PHI)
- Home Field Advantage (favors PHI)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs at Rays Mon, Apr 6 | TB 62% • CHC 38% | TB 6–CHC 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Guardians Mon, Apr 6 | CLE 55% • KC 45% | CLE 2–KC 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Pirates Mon, Apr 6 | PIT 55% • SD 45% | PIT 0–SD 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Marlins Mon, Apr 6 | MIA 55% • CIN 45% | MIA 0–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Nationals Mon, Apr 6 | WSH 62% • STL 38% | WSH 9–STL 6 | Hit |
| Brewers at Red Sox Mon, Apr 6 | BOS 55% • MIL 45% | BOS 6–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Mon, Apr 6 | TOR 55% • LAD 45% | TOR 2–LAD 14 | Miss |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Mon, Apr 6 | CWS 55% • BAL 45% | CWS 1–BAL 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Mon, Apr 6 | MIN 55% • DET 45% | MIN 7–DET 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rangers Tue, Apr 7 | TEX 55% • SEA 45% | TEX 2–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Tue, Apr 7 | COL 55% • HOU 45% | COL 9–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Braves at Angels Tue, Apr 7 | LAA 55% • ATL 45% | LAA 6–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Giants Tue, Apr 7 | SF 55% • PHI 45% | SF 4–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Royals at Guardians Tue, Apr 7 | CLE 55% • KC 45% | CLE 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Tue, Apr 7 | CWS 55% • BAL 45% | CWS 2–BAL 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Tue, Apr 7 | NYM 55% • ARI 45% | NYM 4–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Marlins Tue, Apr 7 | MIA 55% • CIN 45% | MIA 3–CIN 6 | Miss |
| Cubs at Rays Tue, Apr 7 | TB 55% • CHC 45% | TB 2–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Padres at Pirates Tue, Apr 7 | PIT 55% • SD 45% | PIT 7–SD 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Nationals Tue, Apr 7 | WSH 55% • STL 45% | WSH 6–STL 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Red Sox Tue, Apr 7 | BOS 55% • MIL 45% | BOS 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Yankees Tue, Apr 7 | NYY 55% • OAK 45% | NYY 5–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Tue, Apr 7 | TOR 55% • LAD 45% | TOR 1–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Tue, Apr 7 | MIN 55% • DET 45% | MIN 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rangers Wed, Apr 8 | TEX 55% • SEA 45% | TEX 3–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Wed, Apr 8 | COL 55% • HOU 45% | COL 5–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Angels Wed, Apr 8 | LAA 55% • ATL 45% | LAA 2–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Giants Wed, Apr 8 | SF 55% • PHI 45% | SF 6–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Pirates Wed, Apr 8 | PIT 55% • SD 45% | PIT 2–SD 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Guardians Wed, Apr 8 | CLE 55% • KC 45% | CLE 10–KC 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Red Sox Wed, Apr 8 | BOS 55% • MIL 45% | BOS 5–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Orioles at Chicago White Sox Wed, Apr 8 | CWS 55% • BAL 45% | CWS 3–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Wed, Apr 8 | TEX 55% • SEA 45% | TEX 3–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Blue Jays Wed, Apr 8 | TOR 55% • LAD 45% | TOR 4–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Rockies Wed, Apr 8 | COL 55% • HOU 45% | COL 9–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Giants Wed, Apr 8 | SF 55% • PHI 45% | SF 5–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Nationals Wed, Apr 8 | WSH 55% • STL 45% | WSH 1–STL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Angels Wed, Apr 8 | LAA 55% • ATL 45% | LAA 2–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Wed, Apr 8 | NYM 55% • ARI 45% | NYM 2–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Reds at Marlins Wed, Apr 8 | MIA 55% • CIN 45% | MIA 7–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rays Wed, Apr 8 | TB 55% • CHC 45% | TB 2–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Yankees Wed, Apr 8 | NYY 55% • OAK 45% | NYY 2–OAK 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Wed, Apr 8 | MIN 55% • DET 45% | MIN 8–DET 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Marlins Thu, Apr 9 | MIA 55% • CIN 45% | MIA 8–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Yankees Thu, Apr 9 | NYY 55% • OAK 45% | NYY 0–OAK 1 | Miss |
| Tigers at Twins Thu, Apr 9 | MIN 55% • DET 45% | MIN 3–DET 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Mets Thu, Apr 9 | NYM 55% • ARI 45% | NYM 1–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Thu, Apr 9 | KC 55% • CWS 45% | KC 0–CWS 2 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Fri, Apr 10 | SD 55% • COL 45% | SD 7–COL 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Cubs Fri, Apr 10 | CHC 53% • PIT 47% | CHC 0–PIT 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Fri, Apr 10 | PHI 64% • ARI 36% | PHI 4–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Tigers Fri, Apr 10 | DET 55% • MIA 45% | DET 2–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Reds Fri, Apr 10 | CIN 53% • LAA 47% | CIN 2–LAA 10 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Fri, Apr 10 | TOR 57% • MIN 43% | TOR 10–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Mets Fri, Apr 10 | NYM 55% • OAK 45% | NYM 0–OAK 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Fri, Apr 10 | TB 57% • NYY 43% | TB 5–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Orioles Fri, Apr 10 | BAL 55% • SF 45% | BAL 3–SF 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Braves Fri, Apr 10 | ATL 55% • CLE 45% | ATL 11–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Fri, Apr 10 | MIL 55% • WSH 45% | MIL 3–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Fri, Apr 10 | KC 55% • CWS 45% | KC 2–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sat, Apr 11 | STL 55% • BOS 45% | STL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Padres Sat, Apr 11 | SD 55% • COL 45% | SD 5–COL 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sat, Apr 11 | SEA 55% • HOU 45% | SEA 9–HOU 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sat, Apr 11 | LAD 55% • TEX 45% | LAD 8–TEX 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Sat, Apr 11 | PHI 55% • ARI 45% | PHI 4–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Tigers Sat, Apr 11 | DET 55% • MIA 45% | DET 6–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Cubs Sat, Apr 11 | CHC 55% • PIT 45% | CHC 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Sat, Apr 11 | TOR 55% • MIN 45% | TOR 4–MIN 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sat, Apr 11 | KC 55% • CWS 45% | KC 2–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Athletics at Mets Sat, Apr 11 | NYM 55% • OAK 45% | NYM 6–OAK 11 | Miss |
| Angels at Reds Sat, Apr 11 | CIN 55% • LAA 45% | CIN 7–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Sat, Apr 11 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 5–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Sat, Apr 11 | MIL 55% • WSH 45% | MIL 1–WSH 3 | Miss |
| Giants at Orioles Sat, Apr 11 | BAL 55% • SF 45% | BAL 6–SF 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Braves Sat, Apr 11 | ATL 55% • CLE 45% | ATL 0–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sat, Apr 11 | STL 55% • BOS 45% | STL 1–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Sun, Apr 12 | SD 55% • COL 45% | SD 9–COL 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Apr 12 | LAD 55% • TEX 45% | LAD 6–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sun, Apr 12 | SEA 55% • HOU 45% | SEA 8–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Giants at Orioles Sun, Apr 12 | BAL 55% • SF 45% | BAL 6–SF 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Phillies Sun, Apr 12 | PHI 55% • ARI 45% | PHI 3–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Blue Jays Sun, Apr 12 | TOR 55% • MIN 45% | TOR 2–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Sun, Apr 12 | TB 55% • NYY 45% | TB 5–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Reds Sun, Apr 12 | CIN 55% • LAA 45% | CIN 6–LAA 9 | Miss |
| Athletics at Mets Sun, Apr 12 | NYM 55% • OAK 45% | NYM 0–OAK 1 | Miss |
| Marlins at Tigers Sun, Apr 12 | DET 55% • MIA 45% | DET 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Brewers Sun, Apr 12 | MIL 55% • WSH 45% | MIL 6–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sun, Apr 12 | KC 55% • CWS 45% | KC 5–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Cardinals Sun, Apr 12 | STL 55% • BOS 45% | STL 3–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cubs Sun, Apr 12 | CHC 55% • PIT 45% | CHC 7–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Sun, Apr 12 | SEA 55% • HOU 45% | SEA 6–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Apr 12 | LAD 55% • TEX 45% | LAD 2–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Sun, Apr 12 | SD 55% • COL 45% | SD 7–COL 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Braves Sun, Apr 12 | ATL 55% • CLE 45% | ATL 13–CLE 1 | Hit |