MLB2026 season
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Thu, Jul 2, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- PIT at PHIThu, Jul 2, 2026PHI 54%PIT 6–1
- PIT at PHIWed, Jul 1, 2026PHI 54%PHI 6–10
- PIT at PHITue, Jun 30, 2026PHI 54%PHI 0–8
- PIT at PHIMon, Jun 29, 2026PHI 54%PIT 11–7
- PHI at PITSun, May 17, 2026PIT 56%PHI 6–0
- PHI at PITSat, May 16, 2026PIT 56%PHI 6–0
- PHI at PITFri, May 15, 2026PIT 62%PHI 11–9
- PHI at PITFri, Mar 6, 2026—PHI 14–10
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
29%
2 of 7 decided games
Meetings graded
7
2026
Correct calls
2
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Injuries — Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Injuries — Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Pirates offense (4.7 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.