Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rays:
- Offensive Efficiency. Rays offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.2 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency. Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Guardians (4.1 RA/G)
- Recent Form. Rays (98-64) in better form than Guardians (85-77)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Rays at Guardians
The Rays visit the Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio in 2026-2027 MLB postseason play.
Our model gives the Rays a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Guardians will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Rays (low): Rays offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.2 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Guardians (medium): Guardians are 39-36 at home this season; Rays are 34-40 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Rays (low): Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Guardians (4.1 RA/G)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 46% win probability, while Rays has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.