MLB report card: week of 2026-10-12 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
33.3%
hit rate
0.314
Brier score
3 of 9 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Guardians at RaysTB 74.1% pre-game — final TB 3–CLE 7
- Brewers at DodgersLAD 66.7% pre-game — final LAD 2–MIL 6
- Brewers at DodgersLAD 66.3% pre-game — final LAD 4–MIL 6
- Rays at GuardiansTB 65.2% pre-game — final CLE 3–TB 2
- Dodgers at BrewersLAD 57.5% pre-game — final MIL 7–LAD 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Guardians at RaysTB 74.0% pre-game — final TB 3–CLE 1
- Rays at GuardiansTB 65.4% pre-game — final CLE 1–TB 3
- Rays at GuardiansTB 64.9% pre-game — final CLE 3–TB 7
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers at Brewers Mon, Oct 12 | MIL 43.0% · LAD 57.0% | MIL 2–LAD 1 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Brewers Mon, Oct 12 | MIL 42.5% · LAD 57.5% | MIL 7–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Tue, Oct 13 | TB 74.1% · CLE 25.9% | TB 3–CLE 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Wed, Oct 14 | TB 74.0% · CLE 26.0% | TB 3–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Dodgers Thu, Oct 15 | LAD 66.7% · MIL 33.3% | LAD 2–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Guardians Thu, Oct 15 | CLE 34.8% · TB 65.2% | CLE 3–TB 2 | Miss |
| Brewers at Dodgers Fri, Oct 16 | LAD 66.3% · MIL 33.7% | LAD 4–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Guardians Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 35.1% · TB 64.9% | CLE 3–TB 7 | Hit |
| Rays at Guardians Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 34.6% · TB 65.4% | CLE 1–TB 3 | Hit |
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