NHL report card: week of 2026-06-01 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
66.7%
hit rate
0.238
Brier score
2 of 3 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Golden Knights at HurricanesCAR 56.5% pre-game — final CAR 4–VGK 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Hurricanes at Golden KnightsVGK 55.6% pre-game — final VGK 5–CAR 4
- Golden Knights at HurricanesCAR 55.6% pre-game — final CAR 4–VGK 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights at Hurricanes Wed, Jun 3 | CAR 56.5% · VGK 43.5% | CAR 4–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Hurricanes Fri, Jun 5 | CAR 55.6% · VGK 44.4% | CAR 4–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Golden Knights Sun, Jun 7 | VGK 55.6% · CAR 44.4% | VGK 5–CAR 4 | Hit |
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