NHL report card: week of 2026-05-25 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
20.0%
hit rate
0.268
Brier score
1 of 5 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Hurricanes at CanadiensMTL 55.6% pre-game — final MTL 0–CAR 4
- Hurricanes at CanadiensMTL 55.6% pre-game — final MTL 2–CAR 3
- Avalanche at Golden KnightsCOL 51.3% pre-game — final VGK 2–COL 1
- Avalanche at Golden KnightsCOL 51.3% pre-game — final VGK 5–COL 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Canadiens at HurricanesCAR 55.6% pre-game — final CAR 6–MTL 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche at Golden Knights Mon, May 25 | VGK 48.7% · COL 51.3% | VGK 5–COL 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Tue, May 26 | MTL 55.6% · CAR 44.4% | MTL 2–CAR 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Golden Knights Wed, May 27 | VGK 48.7% · COL 51.3% | VGK 2–COL 1 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Thu, May 28 | MTL 55.6% · CAR 44.4% | MTL 0–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Sat, May 30 | CAR 55.6% · MTL 44.4% | CAR 6–MTL 1 | Hit |
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