Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights
Colorado Avalanche 51% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Golden Knights (3.3 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 54% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 48% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 49% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 49% (−2)
Win probability movement
VGK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Avalanche 5-3.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 51% confidence, but the Golden Knights won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a notable factor: Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Avalanche
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 49% win probability, while Avalanche has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.